Ebola Status Report | Special Announcement

Date: 09/24/2014    Written by: Jon Barron

Ebola: 1.4 Million Cases, Not Really

Ebola Status Report | Special Announcement

The maleficent, monger-miners of morbidity are at it yet again, looking to whip people into a frenzy of fear and spread misinformation in the name of the CDC. In case you haven't seen it, there have been an abundance of headlines over the last couple of days saying things like:

CDC report predicts as many as 1.4 million cases of Ebola by January1

And although the CDC report literally says that, it doesn't actually mean that. The statement is taken out of context. I encourage you to read the actual report and not just the stories about it.2 But if you don't have the time, let me explain what the report actually says.

First, this is not an actual prediction; it's the presentation of two different scenarios based on an Ebola Response modeling tool developed by the CDC. The 1.4 million figure represents one scenario. To quote from the report.

"Extrapolating trends to January 20, 2015, without additional interventions or changes in community behavior (e.g., notable reductions in unsafe burial practices), the model also estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting)."

However, the second scenario in the report states:

"If, by late December 2014, approximately 70% of patients were placed either in ETUs or home or in a community setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed), then the epidemic in both countries would almost be ended by January 20, 2015."

In other words, if you weren't into fear mongering, you could just as easily have run a headline based on this report that read:

CDC report predicts Ebola will be over by January

So which scenario is more likely? Well, the last three sentences in the report clearly state the opinion of the researchers themselves.

"Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely."

Unfortunately, many news services have decided to transform into fear-mongering the CDC's express effort to motivate the international community.  As the Washington Post pointed out in its version of the story, CDC Director Tom Frieden, commenting on the report, said, "This presents a what-if case — the nightmare scenario if nothing is done.”  He added, "It is still possible to reverse the epidemic, and we believe this can be done if a sufficient number of all patients are effectively isolated, either in Ebola treatment units or in other settings, such as community-based or home care. Once a sufficient number of Ebola patients are isolated, cases will decline very rapidly — almost as rapidly as they rose.”3

In the same article, Paul Duprex, an associate professor of microbiology at Boston University, states that doomsday thinking is unfounded and that there is no credible evidence that the virus could have mutated and become airborne, “We need to be careful not to scare people with unrealistic numbers — it’s like this airborne suggestion — where’s the evidence, what’s the precedent, what are such scaremongering suggestions based on?” (Note: On the other hand, the virus has been shown to be active in the semen of those infected for up to 80 days after the onset of infection.4 This isn't new or surprising information. It just hasn't been much of a problem to this point since 70-90 percent of those infected have been dying. But going forward, as more people survive, this could become more of an issue and needs to be watched.)

And one final observation, at no point in the report did it talk about the possibility of the epidemic spreading outside of West Africa in any notable numbers. That scenario still remains highly unlikely. Make no mistake; this is already a monumental tragedy for West Africa. But no matter what the final numbers turn out to be, it still looks to be strictly an African tragedy.

With all the shameless nonsense being spread on the internet and in the media, purely for the purpose of generating more readers, perhaps it's worth remembering what FDR said in his first inauguration address, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

Make no mistake: fear is the problem. If not for the fear generated by lies, distrust of government and health authorities, there would be no epidemic now. If people in West Africa had trusted their governments and responded as Ugandans did in previous outbreaks, this outbreak too would have been over in a few weeks. Individuals with an agenda to discredit local governments and health authorities created a climate of fear that worked people into a frenzy. Once set in motion, those people then chose to ignore quarantines, break into Ebola clinics, continue to handle the dead and dying, and freely mingle with their neighbors, which caused the outbreak to became an epidemic. And it’s still going on. Even as I write this, Red Cross volunteers in Guinea were attacked while trying to collect the body of a person who is believed to have died from the disease.5

Now some of you might be thinking this could only happen with ignorant African villagers. It could never happen in the developed world. Unfortunately, if you think that, you would be wrong. Ignorance is neither defined nor constrained by geography, and it is the reason I keep speaking out against the fear mongering currently all over the press and the internet. People who know better, for reasons of their own, are telling stories about how Ebola was created in government labs or it's a conspiracy cooked up by the pharmaceutical companies to sell vaccines or that the vaccines under development are experimental and will kill you. And many readers are eating it up! The bottom line is that there is little chance of Ebola spreading outside of Africa unless enough people in the West become distrustful of their own governments' intentions, and then motivated by fear, they make the same kind of misguided decisions as the people in West Africa and end up turning a small outbreak into a full-blown epidemic. Truly, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

  • 1. "CDC report predicts as many as 1.4 million cases of Ebola by January." Fox News. September 23, 204 (Accessed 23 Sep 2014.) http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/09/23/who-forecasts-more-than-20000-ebola-cases-by-november-2/
  • 2. "Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic -- Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014--2015." CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). Early Release September 23, 2014 / 63(Early Release);1-14. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su63e0923a1.htm?s_cid=su63e0923a1_w?s_cid=cdc_homepage_whatsnew_002
  • 3. Lena H. Sun, ,Brady Dennis and Joel Achenbach. "CDC: Ebola could infect 1.4 million in Liberia and Sierra Leone by end of January." The Washington Post. September 23. (Accessed 23 Sep 2014.) http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/cdc-ebola-could-infect-14-million-in-west-africa-by-end-of-january-if-trends-continue/2014/09/23/fc260920-4317-11e4-9a15-137aa0153527_story.html
  • 4. Ian M Mackay. "Ebola virus in semen is the real deal...." VDU's blog 21 Aug 2014. (Accessed 24 Sep 2014.) http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com/2014/08/ebola-virus-in-semen-is-real-deal.html
  • 5. Elahe Izadi. "Red Cross volunteers attacked in Guinea while trying to bury an Ebola victim." The Washington Post. September 24. (Accessed 24 Sep 2014.) http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2014/09/24/red-cross-volunteers-attacked-in-guinea-while-trying-to-bury-an-ebola-victim/

Click for Related Articles

Comments

  •  
    Submitted by Reggie on
    September 24, 2014 - 10:45pm

    Mike Adams has an interesting take on the whole subject. First of all, CDC has a patent on the Ebola virus. Secondly, the projections were 100,000 UNTIL, suddenly, big pharma has a vaccine. So to sell lots of vaccines, and with the complicity of main stream media, we tout 1.4 million. Lots of vaccines to sell. Just like in previous 'pandemics'.

    Guess I'll believe him over the CDC, stay healthy, and continue with my life.

  •  
    Submitted by BaselineFoundation on
    September 25, 2014 - 10:09am

    Actually Jon addressed all of these issues in a previous newsletter. To repeat what he said: 

    Incidentally, a story currently circulating through the alternative media is that the CDC owns "a patent on Ebola" and will use the patent to create fortunes for the pharmaceutical companies. For example:

    "The formula is always the same: create alarm, bring a vaccine to market, then scare governments into buying billions of dollars worth of vaccines they don't need.”6

    Such claims are actually a misrepresentation of the facts on the ground on multiple levels. First, the patent is not "on Ebola." It is for the "isolation and identification" of a particular species of Ebola known as EboBun, which has been seen just once in a particular outbreak in Uganda. But the bigger problem is in thinking that Ebola is being "engineered" to create fortunes for pharmaceutical companies. Someday I may go into a detailed explanation of how and where pharmaceutical companies make their money--and in many situations it is indeed unethical, but Ebola isn't one of them. Part of the problem with Ebola is that pharmaceuctical companies don't view it as very profitable. You need to understand how much it now costs to bring a drug to market. Current estimates put that figure at close to $1 billion per drug.7 That's billion with a  "b." Given that it costs a billion dollars to bring a drug to market, where would you rather spend your money?

    • On developing a drug that hundreds of millions of people will have to take every day for the rest of their lives? Think statin drugs.
    • Or on a vaccine for Ebola that maybe 10,000 or 100,000 people will take just once in their lives--or at most a couple of times in their lives when an Ebola outbreak happens in their particular neighborhood?

    Quite simply, the reason there is no vaccine currently available from a major pharmaceutical company for Ebola is that it's just not that profitable. Which, by the way, is why we are entering the "post antibiotic" era. Not because new antibiotics can't be developed, but because pharmaceutical companies just don't find it profitable to spend a billion dollars developing a new antibiotic that will only be used by a few hundred thousand people for 6-10 days once or twice in their lives--and only be viable for 3-5 years before the bacteria evolve around it rendering it useless. There's simply no money in it for a "for profit" company. But that's a story for another time. 

    Quite simply, the stories about the CDC patent on Ebola are yet another example of media fear mongering, plain and simple.

  •  
    Submitted by Marie Snavely on
    September 25, 2014 - 8:42am

    Thank you for this through reasoned explanation.

  •  
    Submitted by Mike on
    September 25, 2014 - 9:31am

    John,

    We should all be thankful for your objective and rational guidance and perspective. Those internet agent provocateurs and purveyors of fear, (who should move to South America as they are always threatening) should be ashamed of themselves. Keep up the great work. You have a faithful advocate in me.

  •  
    Submitted by vickey on
    September 25, 2014 - 8:42pm

    Another vaccine on the way? Sources state it is deadlier than the virus. IF they were REALLY concerned about this virus spreading, they would of quarantined the region and stopped travel. They must think most people are really dumb to believe they're truly concerned about us and that we are unable see their obvious use of fear to promote their agenda.

  •  
    Submitted by jason on
    September 29, 2014 - 6:24pm

    Many citizens of Liberia & Sierra Leone don't believe "ebola" even exists...and they live at "ebola-ground zero". (Google these news articles if you don't believe me.) So why should we in the West believe it exists half a world away? Oh yeah...because the CDC & WHO and other "health authorities" tells us so, and because they keep flashing that same picture of an "ebola virus" that looks like protein debris.

    Interesting how all the so-called epidemics/pandemics are always caused by some ever-elusive "virus"...not a bacteria, parasite, fungus, or mold...but viruses (ie, genetic debris that magically has a mind of its own), without a definitive etiology/origin, that emerge suddenly & without warning, that "mutate" constantly, and that are virtually "incurable".

    Add to that the areas of the world where they always seem to "emerge" --- Third World nations rife with already high mortality rates, ignorance (lack of education), lack of sanitation, malnutrition & starvation, resource scarcity & droughts, overcrowding, poverty & stress, war/conflict, vaccination campaigns (thanks to Bill Gates & the WHO), and the many other wonderful rewards of Western exploitation.

    Makes for a perfect foundation to blame the already high mortality rate on an imaginary "virus", to spread worldwide germ-fear propaganda, and to justify quarantines, vaccines, less privacy...and, ultimately, martial law.

    Whatever happened to millions who were supposed to die from AIDS/HIV, SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu/H1N1, Mad Cow, etc? Could it be because they never existed in the first place. A lie is very difficult to keep alive.

    Keep believing in these so-called "viruses", folks, and you'll be handing your power over to an elite globalist group who want nothing but to see you dead...or at least so sick, stressed, tired, and busy with work that you're all but useless to anyone. Stop being followers, and stop looking for a leader or some new leader to follow. Be your OWN leader.

  •  
    Submitted by Dr.P.K.Chhetri on
    October 19, 2014 - 7:00am

    EBOLA: Could we try alternative remedies?

    Ebola virus infection, it is said, has a very poor prognosis once developed full intensity. As per the September 2014 report of the World Health Organisation, there has been 50% fatality wherever the cases have been confirmed, though, once in 2003, one outbreak resulted in 90% fatality in Congo. The same report, which is being repeatedly cited, has created panic all over the world. In fact, till now, except symptomatic treatment, there is no cure so to say against the disease, once the signs begin to manifest.
    The virus was first isolated in the year 1967, and is commonly called Marburg virus nowadays, was antigenically quite unlike any virus known at that time. The virus was subsequently isolated from the large outbreak in Central Africa in 1976. Though morphologically and biologically similar to Marburg virus, yet it is antigenically different and, therefore is commonly identified as Ebola virus. The diseases are named Marburg in Germany and Ebola in Africa, because in the Ebola river region in Sudan and Zaire these viruses first appeared. From 1976 to 2013, as per the WHO study, there were 1716 confirmed cases of Ebola infection, however, the largest outbreak till date in 2014, has been recorded in West Africa, which has affected Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria. This is mainly associated with lack of proper hygiene and preventive measures. The first person to be infected was one Mabalo Lokela, who had toured the area of Ebola River near the Central African Republic border sometime in August 1976. Though he died in September, yet disease manifested in full intensity in others also due to close contact with this infected person, who are mainly confined to Yambuku mission hospital. Later the disease was contained with the help of the WHO by quarantining the infected villagers and resorting to other protective measures.
    Since then there has been major outbreaks in 1995 in Democratic Republic of Congo, in 2000 in Uganda, in 2003 and 2007 again in Congo, but an outbreak in the Budibugyo District in Western Uganda was identified as due to a new species of Ebola virus. Again there has been a small outbreak of the disease in 2012 in Congo and the probable cause was identified as eating the infected bush meat. In the African countries, where the disease outbreak has occurred recently, have very poor health care facilities; therefore, the dead here include even a large number of healthcare workers. Since it is a fatal epidemic, the whole world should come to the rescue of these infected countries, otherwise there is no relief for the world either. Since this Ebola virus constitutes many strains, therefore, I doubt, whether any effective vaccine could ever be produced for all the strains, so literally speaking there is no effective guard against the disease except resorting to concrete preventive measures, such as completely quarantining every suspected case.
    Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), formerly also known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is characterised as a severe disease, because on most occasions it proves fatal for human beings. The virus is usually transmitted to people from wild animals, and later spreads in the human population through human to human transmission. Previously the fatality rate varied between 25% and 90%, but at present as stated above it has not exceeded 50%, this is due to the alertness spread through media and internet. Its effective control basically lies on community engagement, but which may also include case to case management, surveillance, contact tracing, safe burials of the dead patients, social mobilisation and finally organising good laboratory service mainly in the affected area.
    The disease is usually a severe systemic infection that eventually attacks nearly all the organs of the body. After an incubation period of about 5 to 10 days or more, there is an acute onset of malaise, headache, muscle pain and nausea associated with high fever. Even nausea and profuse watery diarrhoea with severe cramps in abdomen have been noted in the early days of the illness. On about the fifth day of illness tiny red papules appear around hair follicles which later become maculopapular. It appears on the trunk, limbs, and genitals associated with deep red erythema of the face, but the rash does not bleed. Though the rash disappears during the second week of the illness, it is replaced by fine desquamation which could mostly be identified in the palms of the hands and on the soles of the feet. Between the seventh and sixteenth day many of the patients also develop a severe haemorrhagic diathesis (bleeding), which evolves as epistaxis (nose bleeding), haematemesis (bleeding from stomach), bleeding from the gums, gastrointestinal and urogenital tracts and from needle puncture wounds. Though jaundice is rare, liver and spleen may also enlarge coupled with swelling of the face. There is deep red suffusion of the soft and hard palate of the mouth occasionally accompanied by vesiculation and erosion. Laboratory findings display low white blood cell, which signifies fall in the patient’s body defence and low platelet counts. Low platelet is also one of the reasons for haemorrhage.
    Simply the description of the symptoms of the disease is enough to trigger goose pimples in any normal person, and then think for a moment, what will happen if unfortunately any person in reality is infected by the Ebola virus. It is really shocking for the humankind that so far there is no effective cure against the scourge except palliative treatment with a hope that patient acquires recovery on his own in the course of time , because as of now immunological and drug therapies are still at their experimental stage. This shows man’s helplessness and vulnerability in front of death and disease, but still for petty ephemeral pleasures man fight against man to eliminate each-other. Is it not utter idiocy?
    It is really difficult to distinguish EVD from other infections such as malaria, typhoid fever and meningitis. Therefore, chances of wrong diagnosis and treatment are always there, which may prove also fatal. In order to confirm that the symptoms are caused by Ebola virus infection, the following investigations are relied upon: ELISA, antigen-capture detection tests, serum neutralisation test, reverse transcriptase polymer chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay and electron microscopy virus isolation through cell culture.
    Immediate rehydration with oral or intravenous fluids coupled with tackling of specific symptoms may improve survival, since, as of now, there is no reliable treatment available for EVD. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states that “recovery from Ebola depends on good supportive clinical care and patient’s immune response.” Even it claims that once recovered, one can develop antibodies against Ebola infection that could last at least ten years, but I doubt this claim of the CDC, because if there is no single strain against Ebola, then one can always remain susceptible to other strains of Ebola, like common colds infection. For prevention, the CDC issued the following instructions for the travellers: a) Practice careful hygiene. For example, wash your hands with soap and water or an alcohol-based hand sanitizer and avoid contact with blood and body fluids; b) Not handling items that may have come in contact with an infected person’s blood or body fluids (such as clothes, bedding, needles and medical equipment); c) Avoiding funeral or burial rituals that require handling the body of someone who has died from Ebola; d) Avoiding contact with bats and non-human primates or blood, fluids, raw meat prepared from these animals; e) Avoiding hospitals in West Africa where Ebola patients are being treated; and f) In the event you return, monitor your health for 21 days and seek medical care immediately if you develop symptoms of Ebola. But it is better to observe all these rituals if in the vicinity of West Africa for the sake of prevention, because it is difficult for anybody to know who is infected and who is not.
    For health care workers, the WHO has issued elaborate instructions, for example: wearing protective clothing, including masks, gloves, gowns, and for eye protection, and also avoiding direct contact with the bodies of the people who have been suspected of having died from Ebola. Even it has been suggested, to immediately notify the health officials if one has come into direct contact with the blood or body fluids, such as faeces, saliva, urine, vomit, and semen of a person sick with Ebola, but the virus can still enter the body through broken skin or unprotected mucous membranes, the eyes, nose, or mouth.
    Even then if the infection with virus is suspected, then the patient should be immediately transferred to an infectious disease hospital with facilities for strict isolation. It is also better to notify the names of all recent contacts of the patients to the local public health authority for undertaking surveillance. Since laboratory staffs are at high risk, investigation of the patient should be reduced to the minimum. Specimens required confirming the viral aetiology should only be sent to specialist laboratories that have the elaborate facilities required for the handling of dangerous pathogens. These precautions apply to all underdeveloped countries like China, India, Nepal, Myanmar, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan and all African and Middle East and South East Asian countries, where health care facilities are minimal. In this hour of crisis, at least China, India and Pakistan should immediately collaborate, overlooking all petty interests in the greater good of their citizens, because nothing is above humanity. Nobody knows when Ebola virus will strike. In case if Ebola penetration could not be prevented, there will be a massacre because of the massive illiteracy and poor hygiene amongst the citizens of the underdeveloped countries.
    As of now, we know there are neither preventive nor curative medicines against Ebola infection, and then should we leave the mankind at the mercy of Ebola virus, I don’t think it will be wise. It has been admitted above by the CDC that curability of the patient depends on supportive clinical cure and immune response of the patient. Then we can draw a conclusion, patient with good immunity is likely to survive the disease easily, therefore, as a first thing against suspected infection, we can administer such medicines that help keep the immunity of the patient intact. One such great remedy is Iodide of Baryta or Baryta Iodata in 1X potency, if not available in 2X or 3X can also be tried, but in later cases dose should be substantial, say three grains at a time. I have used this remedy in chemotherapy patient and other immune compromised patients to raise their WBC count. I hope this single remedy is capable of containing the disease in the patient with Ebola virus infection to a great extent by raising his immunity, if simultaneously other symptomatic treatments are also provided. Next, to prevent haemorrhage, both internal and external, like all snake poisons, Lachesis also decomposes the blood, if Lachesis is given in homeopathic dose (in minute quantity 30 potency), it helps arrest bleeding immediately. Simultaneously Phosphorus in 30 potency can also be tried; it is another excellent remedy for arresting haemorrhage and healing the erosion. With the onset of symptoms like beginning of fever, malaise, headache, sore throat etc. a mixture of the following remedies can be tried immediately in frequent drop dose, such as Belladonna, Bryonia, Gelsemium, Rhus-tox, Arsenic Album and Aconite, all in 30 potency. Initial symptoms can be arrested to some extent with these remedies. For liver and spleen enlargement, there are three excellent remedies: Cina, Chelidonium and Merc Sol, all in 200 potency: mixture of these remedies can be administered at least three times a day. To arrest any kind of infection, Pyrogenium 30, is a highly effective remedy. For raising blood platelet count Ferrum Phos in 3X potency is a good choice. In Ayurveda, the boiled soup of Papaya leaves is also considered an excellent remedy. However if one could take raw juice of tender papaya leaves, about two to three table spoonfuls a day, it immediately raises the platelets count in the blood. During the recent dengue infection my friends have used this remedy with splendid results. There is another highly effective remedy to check any infection or blood poisoning, including intermittent fever, which remedy is Echinesia in Q potency, I recently cured my Typhoid fever with this remedy, by taking ten drops in half cup of water, every three hours. For containing diarrhoea and vomiting, there are a lot of remedies, but I won’t mention them here, because if symptoms of the disease are arrested at an early stage, further complications can be easily avoided.
    When there is no hope in one’s system of medicine, then I do not think it is wise to stick to one’s flawed belief. Mankind is above any established belief; otherwise in our pride inadvertently we may commit a great crime against humanity. However, besides administering these remedies, other preventive emergency measures can be simultaneously applied, just to be safe; nothing should be left to chance. It is always better to do something than nothing! Now the ball is in the WHO’s court!
    Dr.P.K.Chhetri, India
    Dedication: The above article is dedicated to The Honourable President of America in this hour of crisis. Even if it helps a little to ease the suffering of mankind due to Ebola, I shall feel highly rewarded.
    Attention to: The Secretary General, the UNO

  •  
    Submitted by aram on
    October 20, 2014 - 8:46pm
    London ,

    I appreciate your sober resistant to fear-mongering here. But I really don't see us on track to get 70% into beds. In SL there are maybe 300 beds in the country now, 700 planned for the coming weeks, 2000 currently showing symptoms and the # still doubling every 2-3 weeks. (These numbers are from memory, and might be wrong.) Do you have more reason for optimism? The CDC article refers to a US response that has faced a lot of delays.

Add New Comment